This is shocking and a horrifying revelation made by the MIT study center on the spread of Coronavirus in the world. According to them unless the cure is found for the virus, India might have around 2.87 lakh Covid-19 positive cases per day by 2021 and it is a matter of serious concern. Please read the full report here…
India is one of the densely populated country in the world with its population of 135 Crores with majority number of people living under poverty line and that is what makes India more vulnerable to the spread of virus like COVID.
If you compare the other countries like China whose population is 139 crore and the USA with population of mere 32 crore compared to its geographical area which is one of the biggest continent on the planet.
According to the MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, ) study report, the world may witness 249 million (24.9 crore) cases and 1.75 million (17.5 lakh) deaths by spring 2021. According to them, the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is far from over and India might witness a huge surge in Covid-19 cases in coming months unless a vaccine or drug is found to control the disease.
The studies conducted by MIT researchers, Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman, of MIT’s Sloan School of Management states that the US will witness 95,400 cases per day, South Africa at 20,600, Iran at 17,000, Indonesia 13,200, UK with 4,200, Nigeria with 4,000, Turkey with 4,000, France at 3,300, and Germany at 3,000 cases.
The study stresses on the importance of the social distancing specially in the highly populated country like India where people do not follow the social distancing norms. “future outcomes are less dependent on testing and more contingent on the willingness of communities and governments to reduce transmission,” it says.
How does the MIT Researchers Predicted the Figures?
This is something that everyone would want to know as how they come to the conclusion and on what basis. According to the reports, The MIT researchers used the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model to predict the numbers.
The SEIR is a standard mathematical model used by epidemiologists for analysis. The study looks into three factors: a. Current testing rates and response b. If testing increases 0.1 per cent on a day-to-day basis from July 1 c. if testing remains at current levels but contact rate or how many people are infected by one person, is estimated to be eight.
According to Johns Hopkins University, the overall number of global COVID-19 cases has increased to more than 11.7 million, while the deaths stand at 543,000.